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Through the Plans

Five Year Plans : First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh

The primary role of the Perspective Planning Division is to analyse, assess, estimate and make projections relating to quantitative dimension of medium term and long term development plans. The projection exercises ensure that the quantitative dimensions of the plans are consistent between sectors and between various macro economic aggregates. The Division is responsible for making the projection of economic growth and its sector-wise distribution, projection of levels of living, estimation of poverty ratios, projection of Governments' fiscal balance, assessment and estimation of external sector balance. The Division has a formal economic modeling unit for providing sectoral growth profiles of the economy under alternative assumptions. The activities of the Division cover:

(a) Macro-Economic Modeling

Macro-balance in National Accounting Frame under alternative assumptions of growth profiles and (a) formulating appropriate macro-economic model (b) analyzing sectoral growth and investment profiles/requirements and the emerging structures of the economy, (c) inter-sectoral flow of funds including alternative savings instruments. Analysis of input-output structure; sectoral projections based on consistency-cum-investment planning model for estimating mutually consistent growth targets of various sectors. Analysis of State level income aggregates and its sectoral distribution; measurement of inter-state economic disparity and their inter-temporal variations.

(b) Fiscal Issues

Preparation of the fiscal sub-model of the macro-economic model for medium term plans. Assessment of the fiscal position of the Government in the medium term. Analysis of various components of government finances and measures of the deficits and policy implication for macro economic stability and growth.

(c) External Sector

Short and medium-term projections for imports, exports at sectoral level; policy issues associated with the WTO agreements. Projection of imports, exports, invisibles, current account balance and balance of payments, using a model for the external sector. Status papers on trade and customs tariff policy. Technical appraisal of WTO agreements and issues of concern for India based on developments in the global economy.

(d) Consumption and Levels of Living

Assessment of class distribution of consumption and indicators of levels of living. Estimation of poverty line and incidence of poverty for which the Planning Commission is the nodal agency in the Government of India. The incidence of poverty and inequality estimated at national and state level at regular intervals. Analysis of issues relating to human development and their measurement; preparation of the National Human Development Report.



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